Hendon Hooker was an incredible story throughout the 2022 NCAA season, however now that story has jumped the shark. ESPN’s Mike Tannenbaum gained consideration on Tuesday when he crushed each morsel of typical knowledge when it got here to the 2023 NFL Draft by mocking Hooker to the Seattle Seahawks in fifth place.
A number of issues in relation to evaluating a draft and a possible candidate comes down to private opinions and hunches, however that is simply plain silly. We do not have to make enjoyable of this considering or faux it is in some way good. A prostitute within the high ten is silly. It will not occur, it should by no means occur, it was by no means meant to occur.
Let’s discuss why.
Hendon Hooker is an opponent of Will Levis
Predicting NFL quarterbacks is extraordinarily tough, so groups are on the lookout for predictors of success at the next degree. The simplest manner is to review the crime they dedicated in faculty and map that to how the game is performed within the NFL.
That is a lot, far more vital than uncooked faculty statistics. After all, it is good to see somebody win and put up massive numbers, however we have seen big faculty stats earlier than, and in the event that they made a nasty assault, they will by no means, ever translate.
Keep in mind Brandon Doughty? In all probability not. In 2015, the Western Kentucky quarterback had top-of-the-line passing seasons in faculty soccer historical past. Doughty threw for five,055 yards, accomplished 71.9 p.c of his passing yards, threw 48 touchdowns and solely 9 interceptions. He was chosen within the seventh spherical and was eradicated from the NFL after two years.
There was Thread a few crime in western Kentucky that spilled over into the NFL. They’ve run a variation of Air Raid that is wonderful at fielding large numbers and making life depressing for faculty protection, however only a few of the traits wanted to run an Air Raid work with professionals.
Likewise, the 2022 Tennessee Offensive was enjoyable as hell in addition to a complete gimmick. Head coach Josh Heupel ran his personal variation of the Artwork Briles system, which spreads receivers huge and makes use of stack alignment to create defensive confusion. The quarterback has one studying, and the character of the receiver’s pose ends in a damaged relationship on nearly each go. So long as the quarterback can get the ball to that one man shortly, it is simple.
“So when this idea is signaled from the sideline, there may be one aim and just one aim. This isn’t a full-field development studying from quarterback that’s frequent in most West Coast methods. That is why while you have a look at the other finish of the sector, the receivers do not even come out of the ball. They’re simply saving power in case they get tagged.”
This ends in a huge improve in distance, a low threat of interception, and a system designed to destroy groups that do not have time to do large homework in offense.
None of this works within the NFL. Cross runners are too good to permit themselves to run 5 huge on every go. Protection Coordinators can get tricked a couple of instances, however with a little bit time, they will grasp the Gadget Offensive – bear in mind when the Dolphins went 11-5 due to Wildcat in 2008 earlier than it was found out?
The other of that is Will Levis. There is no such thing as a doubt that Levis’s preparation requires an excessive amount of religion as his numbers and faculty scores fail the odor take a look at. Nevertheless, the crime it leads has. Mark Stoops and offensive coordinator Liam Coen copy the NFL offense, with Coen coming immediately from the Los Angeles Rams to Kentucky. There is no such thing as a guesswork. No matter optimistic qualities Levis confirmed whereas main the Coen offensive shall be translate to the NFL so work must be carried out to make up for what he did flawed.
Levis needed to work by the total studying progress. Needed to forged into tighter home windows. Should have had an understanding on NFL and sync route timber. Make no mistake: Levis did not do a lot of these items proper, however a minimum of you realize what you are getting. Hooker, then again, is a wild guessing mess that may even adapt to the NFL from the system it is growing.
Hooker can also be 25 years outdated
It is only a easy actuality that groups need quarterbacks who can fulfill their rookie deal and in the event that they succeed you need to lock them up for 2 massive contracts afterwards. Patrick Mahomes is simply two years older than Hooker, and he is already realized the NFL’s offensive abilities, has develop into one of many biggest quarterbacks of all time, and has gained two Tremendous Bowls.
Justin Herbert is getting into his fourth season within the NFL and is similar age as Hooker.
If you happen to assume it should take 2-3 years (cautious) for Hooker to take impact, he is already approaching his thirties. When it comes time to signal a second contract, you are trying on the risk that he is approaching his 30s when the deal is finished. There simply is not sufficient time to make it value it.
Hooker is Additionally descent from the ACL tear
Sure, bear in mind his faculty season was lower quick BECAUSE HE TORE HIS ACL! Sure, it’s too – and in justifying the selection, Tannenbaum hilariously talked in regards to the harm as if it was a very good factor, saying:
“The ACL, oddly sufficient, is a little bit optimistic for me from that perspective. They only prolonged Geno Smith. Geno Smith shall be their starter this 12 months. Let the ACL come.”
ACL tear is By no means optimistic from any perspective. Which means Hooker shall be sitting out all of 2023 in rehab, taking his first NFL photographs (perhaps) when he is practically 27.
The declare for Hooker is “effectively, it appears so good it is definitely worth the wait.” The issue is that every one the methods it appears good do not translate. This is not some minor leap of religion from Tua Tagovailoa, it is a hole—and even when Hooker had been younger and completely wholesome, he would not have made the highest ten within the NFL Draft simply due to translating the blueprints.
Regardless of every little thing, Hooker can develop into a strong quarterback
For all of the logic behind placing gamers within the NFL, the league is stuffed with examples of the other. Nothing about Josh Allen made sense within the pre-draft course of, and now he is top-of-the-line quarterbacks within the NFL. In the meantime, every little thing about Sam Bradford screamed that he was going to be elitist, and in the long run he turned out to be mediocre at greatest. The listing goes on if we go deeper into the rounds and discover gems which have fallen too far.
The factor is, in relation to choosing NFL quarterbacks with excessive picks, the sport is all about forecasting and mitigating threat. Ceilings and flooring. As for Hendon Hooker, it has a median ceiling and an extremely low flooring. Why any group would take that over somebody like Anthony Richardson who has an identical threat on the court docket – however with a professional “may take over the NFL’s full potential” is past me.
Hooker will solely advance to the primary spherical if the group is keen to miss any logic about how the draft works. This could completely occur, and if he makes up his thoughts, they’re geniuses, however all we find out about draft logic tells us Hooker shall be a day 2 choose at greatest and can most definitely final till the mid rounds. It will not make the highest ten.